An independent data story · ESY 2025-26
E20 ka Chakravyuha
India hit 20% ethanol blending five years early. In the same season, sugar production fell to a five-year low and the retail price jumped from ₹48 to ₹56 a kilo in a single month. This is the story of whether those two facts are connected — and how much.
- Net sugar, LMT
- Diverted to ethanol
- Retail price, ₹/kg (right axis)
- Government and industry figures differ
Stacked bar chart of gross sugar production by season from 2021-22 to 2025-26, with the portion diverted to ethanol shown as a hatched slice. Production falls from 394 LMT to 306 LMT. A dashed line overlays the all-India retail sugar price, which reaches ₹55.7 per kilo. Key point: the 2025-26 production figure is disputed — the Ministry publishes 306 LMT and ISMA 343.5 LMT. Full data in the table below.
Sugar-equivalent basis, lakh metric tonnes. Bases differ between seasons and are labelled in the table: 2021-22 is published on a sucrose basis and is not directly comparable with the gross figures. The price line begins where the retail series begins; its two earlier points are back-cast from the Ministry’s own “~3% annual” framing and are drawn hollow.
- Conflicting figures: 306 LMT (Ministry, 21 Aug 2026) against 343.5 LMT (ISMA First Advance Estimate, Nov 2025). ISMA’s November estimate was overtaken by red rot, top borer and waterlogging; both figures still circulate in the same news cycle.
- Conflicting figures: ~9% of output (~27–30 LMT) (Ministry, 21 Aug 2026) against ~3 million tonnes ≈ ~10% of output (Reuters). A one-percentage-point gap on a 306 LMT base is roughly 3 LMT of sugar.
| Season | Gross | Basis | Diverted to ethanol | Net | Exports | Imports | Closing stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 394 | sucrose | 35.5 | 359 | 109.8 | 0 | — |
| 2022-23 | 366 | gross | 38 | 328.2 | 61 | 0 | — |
| 2023-24 | 340 | gross | 18.5 | 320 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024-25 | 299 | gross | 27 | 261.5 | 9 | 0 | 52.5 |
| 2025-26 ⚠ | 306 | gross | 32 | 275 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
THREE WAYS IN
Where this site stands
We take no position on whether E20 was worth it. Our job is narrower: put the government's numbers and its critics' numbers side by side, mark every place they disagree, and cite all of it.
Every chart has a data table. Every figure has a source. Where two credible bodies publish different values, you will see a ⚠ and both numbers.
five years before target
⚠ ISMA says 343.5
at the ESY 2024-25 peak
first since 2017